Publication · the tell
Nearly every company here posted record or near-record revenue — and cut thousands of people anyway. The stated reason is almost always "AI." So we line the cuts up against the two numbers that never make the layoff press release: where the stock went, and how much the company is actually spending on AI.
2026 YTD · the shape of the cut
The capex line is the one to hold next to the cuts — record AI spend and record cuts, at the same companies, in the same year. See the capex side in Capex Watch →
Tech jobs cut, by month
Q1 ran 66% above the same period in 2025.
Biggest 2026 cuts · click a company for its read
Five mega-events account for over 60% of YTD volume. Gold = AI cited as the reason.
Stock up. Workforce down.
What's really driving the cuts — AI, or the story of AI?
Some names sit at highs and cut anyway — Cisco roughly +82% on the year, Alphabet ~+115%. Others post record revenue yet trade down — Meta, Microsoft, Intuit — and every one of them is cutting. When the stated reason ("AI") rises from 7% of cuts in January to 40% by May, the reason starts to look like a narrative as much as a cause. That gap — between the story and the math — is what Capex Watch measures.
The capex-vs-demand read → · the full thesis →
Sources: Challenger, Gray & Christmas (cuts); company filings/guidance (capex). Figures are 2026 YTD and labelled by whether AI was cited — not assumed. A fuller, live tracker is being built.